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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – The Health of a Country’s Economy


June 1, 2020
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – The Health of a Country’s Economy

Economists, analysts, and traders have their eyes set on the various economic indicators to establish the performance of a country’s economy. This enables the various market participants to speculate current investment opportunities, as well as determine the direction towards which the economy is headed.

One of the economic metrics used to measure the health of a country’s economy is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Growth in the GDP is accompanied by multiple signs of economic growth, including the rise in wages, increased levels of employment, and more profits for companies.

But what exactly is Gross Domestic Product, and how is it a measure of a country’s economic health? Read on for more information on GDP.

What is the Gross Domestic Product?

GDP is defined as the collective value of all goods and services produced within the borders of a country at a specified period. This makes it one of the most commonly used measures of a country’s economic health. Whether an economy is contracting or expanding can be tracked through the GDP metric.

In simple terms, GDP is what analysts and economists use to gauge the size of an economy. GDP is measured either annually, quarterly, or monthly. In the United States, for instance, an estimate of an annualised GDP is released on a quarterly and yearly basis.

uk fundamentals

The Basics of Gross Domestic Product GDP

GDP is a system of national accounts used by governments use to track the economic activity of a country. As a result, various factors are taken into consideration, including the following;

• Public and private investment
• Personal and public consumption
• Government spending
• Exports fewer imports

The measurement of GDP is done in various ways. Here is a highlight of the common measures of a country’s GDP.

  • Real GDP

This measurement factors in inflation and deflation when tracking the expansion or contraction of an economy over periods of time. Most economists prefer using this measure of the GDP to compare the growth rate of a country’s economy.

  • Nominal GDP

This is a measure of raw GDP data. This means tracking the growth of an economy and movement of prices for goods and services without factoring deflation or inflation.

  • GDP Per Capita

This category measures GDP per individual in the national population of a country.

  • GDP Growth Rate

This measure is used to determine the increase or decrease in GDP from one quarter to another.

Balance of Trade and GDP

fundamental analysis

One of the key components of the GDP formula for any country is what is commonly known as the balance of trade. When the total value of domestically products and services produced domestically for exportation exceeds the value of goods and services imported to a country, GDP increases.

This is referred to as a trade surplus. On the other hand, if the value of imports exceeds the total value of all products and services produced domestically, the GDP declines. In this case, the country is said to be in a state of trade deficit.

How The GDP Gets Calculated

The estimate of a country’s GDP can be done through three primary approaches, including the following;

  • Expenditure Approach

This method is also popularly known as the Spending Approach. The expenditure approach considers the spending of various economic participants who contribute to the overall GDP of a specified country.

Such participants include consumers, governments, and private domestic investors. The formula for calculating the GDP of a country using the expenditure approach is as follows;

GDP= Consumption + Government Spending + Private Domestic Investment + (Exports – Imports)

  • Output or Production Approach

While the expenditure approach looks into input costs that drive economic activities, the output approach establishes the total output of a country by summing up all the produced final goods and services by a country.

Because of the production of goods and services passes through multiple stages, this approach only includes the final value of these products. This means that the cost of intermediate products used in the production process is deducted in the calculation. To measure GDP using the output approach, the following formula is used;

GDP= Total Output Value- Intermediate Consumption (costs)

  • Income Approach

This method calculates GDP by measuring the income earned by a country’s factors of production. This is basically the income generated by the services and goods produced by a country, which include rent, wages, profits, and interest. The formula used to calculate GDP using this method is as follows;

Gross Domestic Product= Total National Income + Sales Taxes + Depreciation + (Exports-Imports)

How is the Gross Domestic Product Data Used?

market sentiment

Most countries release data on their GDP status on a monthly and quarterly basis. For example, the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the US publishes two primary GDP releases. The two reports include the advance release and final release.

The advance GDP release is published four weeks after the end of a quarter, while the final publication comes three months to the end of a quarter.

This information contains valuable information and insights on the health of an economy, which investors use to understand the various aspects of the economy. Data on the GDP status of a country provides a foundation for decision making for most traders and investors.

For example, equity investors rely on ‘inventory’ and ‘corporate profits’ data to the total growth of major sectors of an economy. The world bank also calculates the market cap to GDP ratio to determine the trading capacity of an economy or a country’s currency.

The GDP of a country can also affect the exchange rate of various currencies in multiple ways. For example, when an economy’s GDP rise, the value of that country’s currency also grows and vice versa. Forex traders will require this information before trading any given currency.

Final Thoughts

The Gross Domestic Product of a country is one of the fundamental tools used to establish the value and health of a country’s economy. For investors and traders, GDP is an indicator of where their trading speculation should be based.

This is because GDP affects the forex market significantly if the traders’ expectation falls short of the actual numbers in the GDP releases. However, although GDP directly reflects an economy’s health, policymakers and investors must consider other metrics to determine the country’s economic capabilities.

GDP says little about a country’s standard of living. Various metrics will, therefore, complement its usefulness.

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Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice or an investment recommendation and should not be considered as such. The information above is not an invitation to trade and it does not guarantee or predict future performance. The investor is solely responsible for the risk of their decisions. The analysis and commentary presented do not include any consideration of your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances or needs.

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